Decisions drivethe future
I write essays about making them.
Why dying is often hard, but sometimes easy
7 minUntil the God speaks - Protean Uncertainty
6 minEvery success has siblings and often you only meet one
9 minThe Room with the Revolver and other Non-Ergodic Systems
6 minThe Geometry of Luck
10 minEvery decision is the death of a thousand possibilities
8 minLessons in Probability from the Serengeti
8 min
Hey, I'm Julius
At nineteen doctors told me an internal bleeding could kill me within three years. It only took a couple of months to nearly die. I was gripped by the question:
How to make decisions under uncertainty?
Almost ten years later I still think about that a lot. The urgency is gone, but the curiosity stayed, now playing with it more in the context of investing and leadership. The essays are working notes, on everything I could not cover in my thesis.
More about me →
Why it matters…The future isinvisible
But…The present demands decisions.
Propose or stop wasting their time?
Yet…Some decisions perform inthe face of uncertainty.
Pillars of my thinking
Non-ergodicity
A thousand people playing Russian roulette once is not the same as one person playing a thousand times. The crowd survives ruin. You do not.
Protean uncertainty
The problem reshapes itself in response to every move you make against it. There is no solving it.
Bimodal strategies
One position built for absorbing shocks, the other for capturing uncapped upside. Not playing the middle ground.